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United Kingdom took off in Europe, the impact analysis on the export of China enterprises

2016-08-11 15:04:37
On June 24, the United Kingdom referendum out of the EU, global market turmoil, under the influence of the pound, safe-haven currency the dollar surge in Asian currencies generally, the devaluation of the Renminbi. But on China's export trade has not affected? What's the impact? Fasteners exported-oriented enterprises will be affected?

Exit is long, has little overall impact

United Kingdom off Europe's influence and impact on the global economy should not be ignored, but its direct impact on China's economy is not worth panicking. Sino-British bilateral trade accounted for only 2% per cent of China's total trade volume, exports of fasteners Make up a smaller proportion. With China's fastener products quality level low and the European Union have long been resistance to China's fastener, fastener of China's exports to the EU was less, so the effect on the unknown and Explicit.

Instead, the United Kingdom free trade tendency was stronger than many continental European countries for a long time, but rigid decision-making mechanism of the European Union, United Kingdom unable to change the EU's protectionist tendencies of the market, from the EU means "made in China" into the United Kingdom market barriers will be reduced a lot.

In General, the United Kingdom exit is a long legal process, during which many will not be changed all at once. Chinese exports to Europe and the UK will be slightly under pressure. International currency Director and Deputy Director of the Institute, Renmin University Song Zuo believes that in the United Kingdom in a long process of exit, China in the general direction of British investment in Europe and will not be shaken. United Kingdom and the European Union continues to maintain a win-win trade relations may, the two sides might seek re-signed Drawing a series of agreements, United Kingdom may also withdraw from the Lisbon Treaty, but the United Kingdom does not opt out of the common market, continue to maintain existing trade patterns may exist on both sides, this gives the stability of China's trade with Britain and Europe provides a base Foundation.

Short-term market volatility will gradually converge

Xiang songzuo believes that United Kingdom exit such incidents, usually the market will overreact, "China shock transfer effect of more volatility in world markets, itself under the influence of more indirect in nature, is expected to subside in just a week. ”

Lian ping, Chief Economist of Bank of communications also believes that exit market effects will be a long process of fermentation, releasing, but soon the short-term shocks will gradually converge, global financial markets have little effect on China. Oh, no , Sterling and the euro would be weakened in the near future, "the United Kingdom's departure means that the EU and the euro have lost a powerful economic force, global markets are now starting to worry about whether there will be a new round of debt this year, or The crisis of the euro, which in the short term will adversely affect global and Chinese markets. "He said.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the China international trade and economic cooperation Research Institute believes that in the short term, United Kingdom exit the psychological impact will significantly impact the euro's Outlook, resulting in a period of bad euro sinks Rate for euro-denominated China's foreign trade and foreign exchange reserves will bring about a certain degree of uncertainty. But in terms of long-term market effects, weaker against euro and Sterling could strengthen the global market on the strength of the Yuan and The cognition of the stability.

Rui hua certified public accountants, managing partner of Zhang Lianqi believes that Europe back in the global financial market turmoil will impact on China. Short-term volatility was reflected in the currency markets, Sterling will be putting downward pressure on emerging market currencies including renminbi. A new round of global financial turmoil could lead to the country's capital account opening and financial liberalization has further slowed the process.